In Maha Yuti vs Maha Vikas Aghadi fight, Prakash Ambedkar's VBA may play a crucial role

Mumbai, April 14 In the fight between the ruling Maha Yuti (Grand Alliance) and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (that represents the INDIA bloc) in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls in Maharashtra,
Prakash Ambedkar - the grandson of Dr Babasaheb Ambedkar - could play a major role in the backdrop of the Marathas-vs-OBC reservation issue.
The rising demand for category change in the quota of Dhangars and renewed demand for reservation for Muslims has further complicated the situation days before the parliamentary elections are set to begin.
It is in this context that Ambedkar's role has become more crucial, as he is known to command a sizeable following among the scheduled castes, as well as the Muslims in the state.
It may be recalled that in the previous 2019 parliamentary polls, the Prakash Ambedkar-led outfit managed to bag most votes of Dalits, Muslims and other castes, which have traditionally supported Congress. The split in votes directly benefited the then saffron alliance between BJP and Shiv Sena that swept both polls by winning 41 of 48 LS seats in the state.
For MVA constituents Shiv Sena (UBT) head Uddhav Thackeray and NCP (SP) leader Sharad Pawar, both big regional players and former Chief Ministers, this is a crucial do-or-die battle after splits in their respective parties. Both leaders have also lost their parties' age-old symbols. The Shiv Sena group, headed by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, has got the bow and arrow symbol which the party founded by Balasaheb Thackeray has been using for decades.
On the other hand, the group led by Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar, who revolted and caused a split in the NCP last year, has been provisionally allowed the use the party's traditional clock symbol, albeit with a rider, that the matter is sub-judice.
However, in the last five years, BJP stalwart Devendra Fadnavis, who is now Deputy Chief Minister, has grown in stature and presently calls the shots in the Mahayuti alliance, thanks to his proximity with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah.
The western Indian state sends the second biggest contingent of 48 MPs after 80 law-makers from Uttar Pradesh.
The ruling Maha Yuti, comprising BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP, has set a target of winning 45 seats in the state, and contribute to the 400-plus goal of NDA.
For Congress also it is a big battle, as in the last LS election five years back,, the grand old party was reduced to one seat in Maharashtra, once its bastion.
The BJP is banking on Modi’s charisma, the sentiments created around the consecration of Lord Rama's idol at Ayodhya, and the roadmap of Amrit Kaal and Aatmanirbhar Bharat drawn up by the central dispensation.
On the other hand, Congress in its campaign is raising the the debate of democracy vs dictatorship.
In 2009, when the then Congress-led UPA government was elected for the second time headed by Dr Manmohan Singh, from Maharashtra, the Congress and undivided NCP - then known as Democratic Front - won 17 and 8 seats, respectively. In contrast, the BJP and Shiv Sena won 9 and 11 seats, respectively while others/independents got 3 seats.
In 2014, the country witnessed the Narendra Modi wave and the then Gujarat Chief Minister became the Prime Minister. In that election, the saffron alliance comprising BJP and undivided Shiv Sena won 23 and 18 seats, respectively, in Maharashtra, while independent/others got one seat.
In 2019, the same situation prevailed, with the BJP and Shiv Sena winning 23 and 18 seats respectively. However, Congress was reduced to 1 seat while NCP remained at 4 and independent/others won 2.
The period between 2019-24 has been a realignment of political forces in Maharashtra and observers feel a churning is going to happen in the days to come.
After the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, there was Assembly election in October, after which the situation changed and Thackeray parted ways with BJP leading to the formation of the undivided Shiv Sena-NCP-Congress alliance with Thackeray as Chief Minister.
However, soon the pandemic followed during which the BJP made all attempts to destabilise the government. In June-July 2022 there was a split in the Shiv Sena, and Eknath Shinde became the chief minister in a coalition with the BJP. And in June-July 2023, the NCP suffered the same fate.
Because of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent issues pending in the Supreme Court, the elections to 29 municipal corporations of Maharashtra - which is more than 60-65 percent of the state’s 13 crore population - do not have an elected body.
This include urban centres like Mumbai and eight other corporations of the larger Mumbai metropolitan region -Thane, Vasai-Virar, Mira-Bhayander, Kalyan-Dombivli, Navi Mumbai, Pune, Pimpri-Chinchwad, Panvel, and other civic bodies like Nashik, Aurangabad, Nagpur, Amravati -where elections are due.
There has been a lot of migration at the ground level involving both camps. There are also reports of resentment among the rank and files of both the combines. All this has only added to the excitement and drama of the upcoming five-phase Lok Sabha poll in the western state